According to Berlin’s Die Welt newspaper capital outflows from the Eurozone have reached ‘concerning proportions’, while several other indicators also raise the specter of negative outcomes in the Eurozone.
“Skepticism over the cohesion of the Eurozone is also reflected in the so called Euro Break-up Indicator (EBI), which is published every month by the ratings agency Sentix. The EBI jumped by 53% in October which is the largest rise since March 2013 when Cyprus was on the verge of default and an exit from the Eurozone under the weight of the collapse of its banks,” the German newspaper writes adding that, “approximately 12% of investors expects in the coming 12 months the exit from the Eurozone of at least one country.” Recently that figure was below 8%.
Not just the usual suspects
The German newspaper notes that in contrast with Spain and Portugal whose probability of a eurozone exit is low at below 1%, “the permanent exit candidate Greece has seen negative developments. The indicator has leapt to 9%.” And as for Cyprus, “which is suffering due to its economic ties to Russia, the probability of exit from the Eurozone has clearly risen.”
Die Welt also cites as an important development the fact that, “the usual suspects are not the only candidates for an exit… For France the possibility of a eurozone exit has tripled. At 2% it has reached an all-time high.” Meanwhile, following the recent dire results of the ECB’s stress tests for Italian banks the EBI has reached 3% for Italy which is its highest level since early 2013.
Deutsche Bank: A dramatic increase in the rate of capital flight is anticipated
However, “a much more dramatic and clearer indication of the crisis is the flight of capital,” according to the Die Welt, which notes that according to ECB figures last September, 17 billion euros were withdrawn from the Eurozone.
“The British investment bank Barclays projects that the flight of capital from the Eurozone will continue, as a consequence of which the common currency will be subject to added pressure. Strategic analysts in monetary issues expect a downward trend for the euro, which could stop at the earliest at 1.10 dollars.”
George Saravelos, an analyst with Deutche Bank cited in the paper, expects a dramatic acceleration of capital flight which will surpass the capital inflows from exports.
Οι πιο πρόσφατες Ειδήσεις
Διαβάστε πρώτοι τις Ειδήσεις για ό,τι συμβαίνει τώρα στην Ελλάδα και τον Κόσμο στο thetoc.gr
