That’s the view of economists in a Bloomberg survey as the anti-austerity SYRIZA party appears set to take power after elections on Jan. 25. They say there’s an 80% chance that Greece sticks with the euro even if Alexis Tsipras forms a majority government. More than half of respondents see Greece getting debt relief, whoever wins.
There’s a 15% chance Greece will leave the 19-nation currency union if Tsipras forms a coalition government with one of the centrist parties, the Bloomberg survey shows. That compares with 5% under an alliance led by New Democracy.
The risk increases to 20% if SYRIZA gets an overall majority, compared with 5% under a New Democracy majority, the poll shows.
A victory for Tsipras, either alone or in coalition, would result in debt relief for Greece, according to 87% of those polled, while 57% said the same of a Samaras victory.
“Compromise is not as hard as it looks,” said Alan McQuaid, chief economist at Merrion Capital in Dublin. “SYRIZA does not have a democratic mandate to take Greece out of the single currency. It may have to form a coalition to govern, requiring compromise even on its flagship policy. And Europe can give.”
Among the 13% of economists in the survey who see no debt relief for Greece, whatever the election result, is Danae Kyriakopoulou at the Center for Economics and Business Research in London.
“Debt relief is unlikely given the moral hazard issues associated with it and the potential demands for debt relief elsewhere in Europe,” she said. “I sincerely hope to be proven wrong as it is our view that some is necessary for Greece to achieve a sustainable route to recovery.”
Source: Bloomberg
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