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Grexit talk and consequences return by Greek officials

Grexit talk and consequences return by Greek officials

The idea that a Greek euro zone exit could be handled without much damage to the rest of the bloc is met with disbelief in Greek government circles.

THETOC TEAM
ΓΡΑΦΕΙ: THETOC TEAM

Prime Minister Antonis Samaras has been busy talking up the dangers of "Grexit" during the election campaign in an attempt to win over voters. Government officials say the risks stretch far beyond Greece's borders and insist their view is not merely shaped by electioneering.

"Just the threat of Greece defaulting will shake up euro zone's economies in a very fragile period," said one senior Greek official. "Euro zone policymakers don't have a risk management plan in place if things go crazy after the elections and that's a mistake."

Officials in Brussels say they are not taking the prospect lightly and say there would be unpredictable repercussions.

Given that SYRIZA wants to stay in the euro zone, they believe there is will on all sides to make that happen but if the situation got out of hand, unlike in 2012, there are firewalls to contain contagion, the markets mood is different and the ECB looms large.

Some analysts say, while the risks of a repeat of the chaos seen in 2012 are minimal in the short-term, the longer-term repercussions of a Greek euro zone exit should not be underestimated.

"A 'Grexit' would not cause serious problems for the euro zone in the short term," said Nikos Vettas, head of IOBE, Greece's most influential think tank.

"In the medium term however, it would pose the question as to whether there is cohesion within the euro zone and if the ultimate aim of integration is attainable."

The Greek government privately plays down the odds of a "Grexit", but warn that a series of wrong moves could put the country close to the edge with the bailout expiring at the end of February and leaving little time for negotiation.

"We won't have a 'Grexit'. It's not like in 2012 but we could get close to what happened then, especially if there are signs of a bank run," the official said.

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