Let us make a very realistic working assumption: that the current parliament on the 29th of December will be unable to elect a President of the Republic. As such, within 10 days parliament will be dissolved and elections announced – within 30 days – which will be won by the party which holds a steady lead in the polls over recent months: that is, SYRIZA.
At a first glance, even with an absolute majority the new government will first have to elect a President of the Republic and subsequently seek a vote of confidence from parliament. That means that the soonest we will have a government will be the 15th of February!
To put it simply, the new government will have about 2 weeks to come to an understanding with the troika to conclude – if it hasn’t happened until then – the review of the bailout program and reach an agreement over a precautionary credit line, or to negotiate its own program as Alexis Tsipras has committed to doing, in the event that SYRIZA wins the elections.
One question is immediately raised: Why did Samaras and Venizelos - despite the pressure of the lenders to do so - not request a six month extension, or at least a three month extension of the program in order for the new government to have time to negotiate?
Because, you will say, they are certain that a president will be elected and the country will not go through the trial of elections! Or because they are certain that even if the country goes to elections they are certain they will win. Come, let’s be honest. “Politics is the art of the possible,” not striving for the unattainable. Everything indicates that the current dealings in parliament will not lead to the election of a president and the polls give SYRIZA a steady lead of 4 to 7 points.
Is another explanation that the government doesn’t want to be further tarnished in the eyes of MPs and voters following the continual climb-downs in the face of the lenders? That’s true, but a responsible government, taking into account all of the possible eventualities is obliged to provide its successor – for the good of the country - with the necessary time to negotiate and not to throw it ‘into the belly of the beast’ (to borrow the phrase used by Alexis Tsipras) with a gun to its head. Unless it is deliberately employing the strategy of the ‘parenthesis of the left’. But I don’t even want to consider the possibility that the Greek government could, after 6 years of recession and austerity, operate on the basis of such ‘unpatriotic’ and selfish motives.
PS. May I remind that until very recently the government was saying that if the process of constitutional reform is not completed by the current parliament then it would be a ‘catastrophe’ for the country!
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