Despite the government gaining the support of 168 MPs in yesterday's second round of the presidential ballot, an improvement on the 160 votes it obtained in the first round, it looks increasingly difficult to garner the required 180 and avert snap elections early next year. Everything will be sealed on the third and final round of voting at noon on the 29th of December. Until then there will be ongoing discussions in the background as a last resort to convince MPs to switch their votes and support the candidate.
Based on what we know now, even if the coalition manages to draw a few more MPs from the pool of independents or even the parliamentary groups of DIMAR and Independent Greeks the magic number of 180 needed to elect president in the third round of the presidential ballot remains very difficult to achieve. So despite the efforts, the understanding is that after December 29th the country will go to snap elections.
The way things stand now, the best case scenario is for the coalition to attract as many as 174-175 MPs which still leaves it short of electing Stavros Dimas but can be used as a powerful argument ahead of elections. The government will insist that the presidential ballot was a close call and the impasse was caused by Syriza's irresponsible stance. New Democracy hopes that in the case of snap elections it will be able to overturn the projected opinion poll results that put Syriza ahead. The pre election campaign will be characterized by tough rhetoric and dilemmas by both sides in order to rally support.
New Democracy officials think the key of the electoral result lies in the hands of the undecided and those who abstain from voting and their aim is to mobilize them to support the conservatives in order to avert a Syriza win. However, in case New Democracy does come second, their parliamentary group will be halved which leads many to believe that over the next few weeks and during the pre election period a lot of conflicts will arise within its ranks as MPs and even high ranking Ministers will vie for fewer parliamentary seats. They hope to do everything possible to rally right wing and center-right voters and aim for a percentage of as high as 30%. Even if New Democracy loses the election, such a result would be satisfactory ahead of another scenario that seems to be gaining traction. This is the idea that even if Syriza wins the election their government will only be a ‘parenthesis of the left’ that will be short-lived given the difficulties it will face regarding negotiations with the lenders and the managing of the financial situation facing the country
A series of meetings are taking place on daily basis in the New Democracy HQ with officials already drawing up candidate lists for the upcoming national election. They hope to have their ballots ready as early as this coming Sunday just ahead of the last round of the presidential vote. Snap elections may be held as early as January 25 but it looks like February 1 is a most likely date.
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