The date for the next general elections in Greece was officially set today when Antonis Samaras met with the President of the Republic Carolos Papoulias and formally asked for parliament to be dissolved. The move came following parliament's failure yesterday to elect a new president of the republic.
On the 25th of January 2015 Greek voters will head to the polls for the fourth time in five years in a critical election that will determine much about the future of the country.
As would be expected Greece’s political parties are a hive of activity as electoral lists are being drawn up. It also appears almost certain that the Democratic Left party (DIMAR) will be absorbed by SYRIZA.
Obviously much will be determined by the political campaigns and other developments over the next three weeks. But here is what the polls say about where each party is starting from.
SYRIZA continues to lead in opinion surveys, polling at about 26.7% followed by New Democracy on 23.4%. The River party (To Potami) is polling at about 5.6%, PASOK is on 5.2%, Golden Dawn and the Greek Communist Party (KKE) are polling around 5% and the Independent Greeks on 2.7%.
A significant proportion of voters (13%) remains undecided. If those votes are relatively evenly distributed, SYRIZA is likely to surpass 30%, New Democracy would receive 26%, the River, PASOK and Golden Dawn are likely to receive around 6% and the Independent Greeks 3%.
What does this mean?
If these numbers are ultimately confirmed, that would mean that SYRIZA would not obtain an outright majority (which requires over 33%) and would have to form a coalition to form a government.
The Independent Greeks party may or may not be represented in parliament (under the Greek electoral law, parties must receive at least 3% of the vote to elect MPs to parliament). Even if the party does surpass this threshold, it is unlikely to be of much assistance to SYRIZA as it will only have a handful of MPs. In any event a coalition between SYRIZA and the Independent Greeks would be a tricky balancing act. Apart from their shared hatred of the memorandum bailout program, the two parties share very little political common ground, the Independent Greeks party being firmly on the right wing of the political spectrum, compared to SYRIZA’s hard left stance.
Golden Dawn and KKE can also be safely ruled out of a potential coalition, as can New Democracy. That would leave PASOK and/or the River as potential coalition partners for SYRIZA in the event that Alexis Tsipras fails to win an outright majority.
George 'Wildcard' Papandreou
However the major wildcard in all this is George Papandreou. The former PASOK Prime Minister looks set to break away from the party his father founded and set up a new party, despite former influential PASOK figures urging him not to do so in recent days, warning of electoral disaster.
Sources close to Papandreou say that he is set on his decision and that the new party will be announced sometime between the 1st and 3rd of January. The same sources state that the goal is for the party to be represented by young people under the age of 40 by 70-80%. They state that already there is an excess of potential candidates in 15 regions and that meetings between groups allied to Papandreou have been taking place throughout the country to establish the electoral lists.
At this point this leaves a large question mark hanging over any polling data. Until the party is established and included in new polls, it is highly unclear what level of support Papandreou’s party would garner. Would it gain enough support to be a significant player? No one knows at this point.
It is also unclear who Papandreou would draw votes from, although those most threatened are (the remains of) PASOK, the River and SYRIZA.
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