The announcement that Stavros Dimas will be the government’s nominee for President of the Republic has triggered a flurry of activity among the independent MPs not affiliated with any party.
But is it possible for the government to obtain the supermajority that it needs to prevent early elections? Here is an early look at the numbers.
The background:
The constitution provides for three rounds of parliamentary voting to elect a new head of state. The first two require a candidate to be voted for by 2/3 of the chamber or 200 votes, something which in this case is effectively impossible. In the event that these two votes fail to elect a president, a third vote is held in which a candidate must be supported by 3/5 of the chamber or 180 MPs. The three successive votes are held at intervals of at least 5 days. In the event that the third vote proves unsuccessful parliament is dissolved in 10 days and general elections are announced.
The first vote is to be held on the 17th of December, the second on the 23rd and the third on the 29th.
The numbers
The two governing parties currently have 155 MPs in parliament (out of 300). So they need to find at least an additional 25 MPs to elect a new president.
So how likely is it that the government will reach the magic number of 180 MPs? The situation is still fluid at the moment but here are some early numbers:
The Independents - 24 MPs
Yes / Leaning Yes: 13 Independent MPs are in favour of the election of a President of the Republic or possible yes vote.
No / Leaning No: 8 Independents are expected to vote No
Definitely Maybe: 3 are considered on the fence.
However even if the government manages to get the support of 16-17 of the independents, (let’s say even 20 in the best case scenario for the government) then it will still need the support of defecting MPs from other parties: namely the Democratic Left or Independent Greeks. Or for one of the parties to change stance.
The Prohibitive 121
To put it another way, if one takes all of the votes of SYRIZA (71 MPs) and the Greek Communist Party (KKE- 12) and Golden Dawn (16) and adds the votes of Independent Greeks (12) and the Democratic Left (10) then that adds up to 121 votes – a number which renders the election of a new President impossible.
So the only way for the government to elect a president is by securing votes from these opposition parties (at the same time as winning over most of the independents).
One can fairly safely rule out any yes votes coming from SYRIZA or KKE, leaving the Independent Greeks and the Democratic Left. Both parties have declared that they will not vote for the President but will they hold that line? That remains to be seen.
The final wild card is Golden Dawn. While it is widely assumed that the neo-fascist party will vote in lock step against the government defections from the party cannot be ruled out.
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