With a week to go before 10 million Greek voters head to the polls, a new poll conducted by Metron Analysis on behalf of Parapolitika.gr shows SYRIZA leading by a margin of 4.6 points over New Democracy and approaching levels of support that would grant the party an absolute majority in the country’s 300 seat parliament. SYRIZA’s lead over New Democracy has widened by half a point compared to a poll last week conducted by Metron.
While SYRIZA is widely expected to win the upcoming elections, whether it will obtain enough seats to secure an outright majority remains very much an open question. If it fails to do so, then to form a government it will have to enter into a coalition with one of the smaller parties.
For now the party appears to be closing in on the target of an absolute majority. Were the results of the latest Metron Analysis poll to be repeated in the elections, then the party would walk away with 147 seats. A week ago a poll by the same company saw SYRIZA wining 143 seats.
As the election approaches the trend towards high levels of polarization between the two main parties continues, with the smaller parties under pressure. 35.4% of respondents said they would vote for SYRIZA, compared to 30.8% for New Democracy meaning that almost exactly two thirds of Greek voters said they intended to vote for one of the main two parties – a percentage reminiscent of pre-crisis elections when New Democracy and PASOK dominated the Greek political landscape.
As TheTOC.gr has previously reported, a critical factor in SYRIZA’s quest for an absolute majority will be the fate of the smaller parties. Due to the way electoral law works in Greece, the greater the percentage of the vote that goes to parties that fail to meet the 3% threshold to enter parliament, the smaller the percentage of the overall vote that needs to be won by the leading party to secure 150+ seats.
Two parties are currently on the edge according to the poll. The Independent Greeks polled at 3%, and George Papandreou’s party (The Movement of Democratic Socialists) polled at 2.7%.
In third place is the River party (7.1%), followed by Golden Dawn (5.4%), the Greek Communist Party (5.1%), PASOK (4.2%) and Independent Greeks (3.0%).
According to results of the poll the breakdown of parliamentary seats would be:
SYRIZA – 147
New Democracy – 85
The River – 19
Golden Dawn – 15
KKE – 14
PASOK – 12
Independent Greeks – 8
When asked who they believed would win the elections 76% of respondents answered in favour of SYRIZA. Meanwhile a large majority (63%) said they were in favor in the formation of a coalition government.
The critical undecided vote
The percentage of undecided voters according to the poll stands at 11.5%. Needless to say, how this will be distributed in the election will be a key factor.
According to the survey, of the undecided voters 27% describe themeselve as centrists, 18% as on the left and 21% on the right/center right. 12% did not answer and 22% responded ‘none of the above’.
Among the undecided, the largest demographic group was middle class women aged 35-44.