In the fraught negotiations between Greece and its troika of lenders over the final review of the bailout program one issue looms large, casting a long, complicating shadow over the process: Greece’s need to elect a new president of the republic.
Some Background
In February parliament must elect a new head of state with a supermajority of at least 180 MPs. If that is not achieved, snap elections will be triggered. The rule was first adopted in an effort to ensure that the head of state would enjoy broad support. However in recent years opposition parties have used the presidential election process in an attempt to force snap elections.
When in opposition, in 2009 George Papandreou as leader of PASOK said that his party would not vote for any presidential nominee in an attempt to force early elections (which he got). The current opposition party, SYRIZA, is now adopting the same strategy, refusing to vote for any candidate in the upcoming elections.
To date, it is unclear whether the current New Democracy – PASOK governing coalition will be able to gather the required 180 MP votes. This means that in 2-3 months’ time the country may be headed for general elections which the leftist SYRIZA is projected to win. SYRIZA has repeatedly stated that if it comes to power, it will reject any agreement signed by the current government over the future financing of the country after the current bailout-programme ends.
It appears that this fact has contributed to the troika’s reticence to complete the review of the bailout programme. In effect it appears that they are keeping a close grip on all their bargaining chips in the event that they will need to use them against SYRIZA.
So how likely is it that a new president will be elected?
The Numbers:
The two governing parties currently have 155 MPs in parliament (out of 300). So they need to find at least an additional 25 MPs to elect a new president.
Ruling the out MPs of SYRIZA, the Communist Party and Golden Dawn, the remaining potential sources of votes are the pool of independent MPs (24 in total) and the parties of the Democratic Left (DIMAR) and the Independent Greeks (ANEL).
While the leadership of the latter two parties have opposed the election of a new president, a number of MPs have indicated that they could reject their party’s line and support the government.
The Initiative
In what may prove to be a crucial development, a petition is currently being circulated in parliament calling on MPs to unite in support of the election of a new president. The text also links this with the launching of process of constitutional reform, and early general elections within 2015.
“In this critical phase which the country is going through, the national reconstruction demands cooperation, agreements and wider consensus. The parties of the democratic arc must rise to the occasion and listen to the voice of society which seeks a change in the dead-end government policies, without at the same time exposing the European trajectory of the country to dangers,” the petition opens.
The authors then call on MPs to support the election of a President of the Republic as a “powerful symbolic expression of a widely supported procedure, away from dangerous ‘bean-countings’ of parliamentary votes which undermine the authority of the office as well as of parliament.”
Commencing a process of constitutional reform is also considered necessary by the authors as two parliamentary periods are required for the process. As such if it is not begun by this parliament, then the can will be kicked indefinitely down the road, further reducing parliament in the eyes of the country’s citizens, the authors argue.
The commitment for early elections in 2015 (ordinarily they are scheduled for 2016) is left vague. However effectively the MPs are proposing supporting the government’s nominee for a President of the Republic - which will allow it to complete the negotiations with the troika and officially end the Memorandum - in exchange for early elections sometime within 2015 (probably towards the end of the year).
Comments made yesterday by the Deputy Prime Minister Evangelos Venizelos that left the door open for an early appeal to the electorate appear to be aligned with this.
Counting the Beans
It is unclear as yet exactly how many of the pool of MPs currently on the fence will ultimately commit to the petition.
However early reports indicate that to date a total of 172-176 MPs have stated that they are tentatively on board, leaving the government needing only additional 4-8 in order to hold off the prospect of snap elections.
The government may also seek to move the presidential election forward to the period immediately following the holidays (as opposed to mid February). This would link the election of a new president more directly to the completion of the negotiation process with the troika, thus putting added pressure on MPs to support the stability of the government.
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